Strava

Where the watts go

Ross Jacobson's cycling and lifting goals, training plan and progress, built from Strava.

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Ride calendar

Solid tiles are done, on the day they happened. Dashed tiles are still to do, in drop order; faint italic ones are optional. A red dot is an injury — darker is worse. Tap anything for detail.

Block 1 · durability

Eight weeks. Bring the right-hand end of the power curve up without breaking the chain.

The week

No fixed days. What does not move is the drop order — bottom up, never top down.

#	Session	Target	Why it ranks there

Top three happening is a good week. The optional ride exists to be dropped.

Eight weeks

The long ride grows by time, the hard ride by reps — never by watts. Sprints start week 3. Weeks 4 and 8 are deloads and carry the tests.

Wk	Starts	Long ride	Hard ride	Sprints	Missed	Focus

Rules

Where sessions cannot go, and what to do on a bad morning.

Morning check	Long ride	Hard ride

Sleep, leg heaviness, and whether you want to ride. Two or more amber, downgrade.

What it works around

The chronic injuries, from Health. Short-term ones follow the Rating scale day to day.

Block 1 · tendon and habit

Built around the cycling block, not beside it, and started with it on Sep 14. Your lifts, current weights, heavier only when earned.

The week

Three sessions at most. Cycling comes first; the lifts sit in the same drop order.

#	Session	Target	Why it ranks there
2	Legs	Gym, about 30 min. Split squats and reverse lunges, one dumbbell in one hand; goblet. Three sets; the reps climb one at a time, 6 to 8, then the weight. The exact numbers are in the pill on the calendar.	Tendon capacity is what has broken before. Ranks above the hard ride.
5	Upper · chest and arms	Home, about 30 min. Bench, incline dumbbell, overhead press light, curls, triceps. Three sets (bench four); reps climb one at a time to the top number, then the weight. Exact numbers in the pill.	Holds upper-body mass, which the bike does nothing for. First to slide.
5	Upper · back	Gym or home, about 30 min. Assisted pull-ups 5 × 5, less help when earned; dumbbell and cable rows, three sets, reps climbing one at a time. Exact numbers in the pill.	Balances the pressing. Slides with the other upper day.

# is the place in the whole week: 1 long ride, 3 hard ride, 4 easy ride, 6 optional spin. Bottom goes first.

Eight weeks

The weight goes up only when earned — never on a schedule. Weeks 4 and 8 deload with the bike.

Wk	Starts	Legs	Upper	Missed	Focus

The block began 14 Sep for lifting too. Weeks 1 and 2 were lifted before the program was written, and count.

Week by week

Each lift's step for every week, re-planned from Strava each time you log.

Miss a rep and that step repeats; the weeks after slide. A week without the lift does not count as a step.

Rules

How the weight goes up, and what it has to fit around.

One engine: Cycling and lifting draw on the same body. The cycling plan stays as written; lifting fits around it, and gives way first in a heavy week.
Your lifts: The exercises are the ones you already do — they are what has kept you injury-free. The levers are sets, weight and how often. A new exercise only if it earns its place, one at a time: belt squat first, since you want to try it.
When to add: Reps first, one a week. Weight only after the top reps on every set, two sessions running. A jump over 10% — most dumbbells — comes in one set at a time. Sets change between blocks, never inside one.
Only if: Every rep was clean at the RPE, and nothing sat above 2/5 the next morning. Anything flares: hold everything that week.
Earned jumps: Heavier only when every set reaches the top of the range two sessions running — then the smallest jump there is. Slower than the muscle says. Goal 1.
Effort: Stop two or three reps short of failure. Never a maximal attempt. Three seconds down, the full range the injuries allow. Goal 4.
Around the bike: Legs at least 24 h clear of a round or a ski day, either side — they load the same tissue. Not the day before the long ride.
Deloads: Weeks 4 and 8, with the bike: drop a set, keep the weight.
Eat: About g of protein a day, spread over meals. If the weigh-ins drift down for two weeks, eat more on ride days. Goal 2.
Power: None this block. Now is strength; speed peaks May to August. It also waits on the back.

Morning check	Legs	Upper

Sleep, soreness, and whether you want to lift. Two or more amber, downgrade.

What it works around

The chronic injuries, from Health. Short-term ones follow the Rating scale day to day.

Twelve months

Five blocks to Ken Harrod, June 2027. Dates slide; the order does not.

Block	When	The job	Long ride	Hard session	Sprints	Goals	FTP after
1 · Durability	Sep 14 – Nov 8	A base that does not fall apart. Ride consistently for two months, which has never happened.	80 → 140 min, watts capped	2–3 × 8–10 min	A sprinkle: 4 × 8 s in the long ride	1	170–175 W
2 · Engine	Nov 9 – Jan 3	Push threshold right. The reps get longer at the same watts — the curve reaching further, not higher.	holds at ~2 h	2 × 10 → 2 × 20	Same sprinkle. Holding, not building	4	185–195 W
3 · Ceiling	Jan 4 – Feb 28	Raise the roof so threshold has room. Highest-fatigue block of the year; small doses.	~2 h, mostly indoors	4–6 × 3–4 min	Build. 6–8 × 12 s, twice a week, heavy legs alongside	3 · 4	195–205 W
4 · Convert	Mar 1 – Apr 4	Back outdoors at the new power. Indoor watts flatter you; expect the first rides to feel worse than the numbers.	rebuild to 2½ h	2 × 20, outdoors	From speed, outdoors: 6 × 15 s	3 · 4	200–210 W
5 · Sharpen	Apr 5 – Jun 13	Race-specific. Hill repeats on Punkatasset and Pantry Road, heat and fluid work once the doctor has cleared it.	3 h, with efforts late	3–4 × 90 s, full recovery	Jumps late in hard rides, on tired legs	2 · 3	210–220 W

Goals: 1 consistency, 2 heat and gut, 3 strong rider, 4 the curve. Deload every fourth week, no exceptions. Blocks slide around skiing, golf and travel — the sequence is what matters, not the calendar. Heat work is spring only: adaptations fade in 2–4 weeks, so doing it in January is wasted.

What each block buys

Tied to the goals. One thing per block, checked at its test.

Block 1: Decoupling under 10% and 12 of 12 weeks ridden. Today: and . Goal 1.
Block 2: 20 min ÷ 60 min under 130%. The flatness of the right-hand end, which is the one number that has not moved since May 2025. Goal 4.
Block 3: 5-min power to 250 W, and the first honest 45-minute test — the long end of your curve has never actually been measured. Goal 3.
Block 4: Outdoors at indoor watts, and 60 g of carbs an hour tolerated on every long ride. Goals 2 and 4.
Block 5: 1-min power to 420 W — the duration your climbs actually ask for, and the one where you are closest to DT. Goal 3.
Then: Ken Harrod, Harvard MA, mid-June — twenty minutes from the house, on roads you already ride. Whether you pin a number on is a separate question; being able to is the goal.

Twelve months

The bike’s five blocks. Three sessions at most, all year; cycling first.

Block	When	The job	Legs	Upper	Power	Goals
1 · Durability	Sep 14 – Nov 8	Tendon and habit. Current weights, slow lowering, heavier only when earned.	Split squats, lunges, goblet; belt squat to try	Pressing light; rows, assisted pull-ups	None	1 · 4
2 · Engine	Nov 9 – Jan 3	Strength — the lifting core of the year. Weight holds or climbs.	Heavier, 5–6 reps: belt squat, split squats. Twice a week builds it	Rows heavier; pressing still slow	None	1 · 2
3 · Ceiling	Jan 4 – Feb 28	Ski season. Skiing is the other leg load, so legs goes heavy and short.	2–3 heavy sets, beside the sprint build	Hold	First taste: landings, low hops, rotation unloaded. Own day	2 · 3
4 · Convert	Mar 1 – Apr 4	Start turning the strength into speed.	Strength held, fewer sets	Hold	Jumps and light-ball throws, low volume. Own day	2 · 3
5 · Sharpen	Apr 5 – Jun 13	Golf season starts. Hold strength and weight first; speed builds alongside.	Once a week, heavy enough to hold it	Twice, holding	Throws and jumps first in the session, fresh — never instead of the strength work	2 · 3
Then	Jun 14 – Aug 29	Tournaments and qualifiers. Strength and weight held first; speed peaks alongside.	Once a week, heavy and short	Twice, holding	Short and fresh, inside the three sessions	2 · 3

Goals: 1 consistency, 2 strength, keep the weight, 3 explosive, 4 strong through the range. Now is strength. In golf season both get done, but holding strength and weight edges out speed. Power work has its own day, never a session with a ride, and rotation is loaded one step at a time, rated.

What each block buys

Tied to the lifting goals. One thing per block.

Block 1: The habit, and no setbacks from the gym. Lifting most weeks, every lift at or above where it started. Today: weeks lifted, setbacks in four weeks. Goals 1 and 4.
Block 2: Strength — the biggest steps of the year, while FTP rises and the weight holds or climbs. Goals 1 and 2.
Block 3: Strength kept through ski season, and the guideposts reached by March. A first taste of power: landings, low hops, rotation unloaded. Goals 2 and 3.
Block 4: Speed starts. Throws and jumps become regular; strength held on fewer sets. Goals 2 and 3.
Block 5: Into golf season holding strength and weight, with speed building alongside. Goals 2 and 3.
Then: Tournaments and qualifiers, May to August. Strength and weight held first; speed at its peak. Goals 2 and 3.

Goals

What this is for

Set 23 Sep 2026. Everything else on the page derives from these.

1 · Consistency: Ride for years without breaking. Every previous run has ended in a soft-tissue injury and a reset. This outranks the other four — when two conflict, this wins.
2 · Heat and gut: Heat illness golfing repeatedly this year, from not being able to eat or drink while moving. Train the gut on the bike, where intake is measurable. A doctor sees the heat episodes first.
3 · Strong rider: Punch over a climb, jump away on the flat, hold the gap, finish with a kick. Cat 4/5 capability, raced or not. A rouleur with a puncheur’s finish — kg on rolling ground, where absolute watts beat watts per kilo.
4 · The curve: Shift it right and flatter, not steeper. Steeper is the beginner shape, which is what the data shows. Sprint work stays a small weekly dose, never a focus.
5 · Everything else: Competitive golf, lifting, a lot of skiing, a full-time job. Three rides with an optional fourth is the ceiling, not a floor.

Targets

Where you are, March 2027, and what Cat 5 asks for. The last column is two to four years out.

Measure	Now	Mar 2027	Cat 5 ready	Why it is on the list
Weeks unbroken	—	26	—	Goal 1. Nothing else matters if this fails.
Weeks ridden, last 12		10+, held all winter	—	Goal 1. A week counts once it has a 30-minute ride. A missed week costs a point; riding earns it back.
FTP		185–200 W	255–280 W	The platform everything else sits on.
5-min power		230–240 W	300–330 W	Goal 3. The attack itself.
Sprint, 5 s		900–950 W	1,100 W+	Goal 3. The kick that makes a split stick. Read it loosely — a single meter spike can set a 5-second number.
Sprint, 30 s		470–500 W	600–630 W	Goal 3. The honest sprint figure, and the one that actually drops a wheel — a jump long enough to open real daylight.
1-min power		380–400 W	450 W+	Goal 3. What the local climbs actually ask for — Punkatasset and Pantry Road are 60–90 seconds.
20 min ÷ 60 min		under 125%	under 112%	Goal 4. The flatness of the right-hand end. The single best measure of the engine.
Decoupling		under 8%	under 5%	Durability. Whether the punch is still there at mile 30.
Carbs on the bike	none	60 g/hour	90 g/hour	Goal 2. The gut is the thing being trained, not just the legs.
Longest ride		50 mi+	60–80 mi	Grows by time, never by watts.
Repeatability	untested	effort 4 within 10% of effort 1	—	Goal 3. Unmeasured, because solo endurance rides never ask for it. Test in spring: 4 × 90 s hard, 60 s between.

The gap to Category 5 is roughly 100 W of FTP. At a sane rate of building that is two to four years, and the whole design is aimed at still being here for year two. Weight is not a lever being pulled: cutting calories during a build works against goal 2 and raises the injury risk in goal 1.

What this is for

Set 27 Sep 2026. The win is a little better every week — slow, steady strength, for golf.

1 · Consistency: Lift for years without getting hurt, building strength slowly. The same goal as cycling, and the same engine: one body feeds both, so cycling comes first and lifting is built around it. Tendons adapt in months, muscle in weeks, so the load climbs slower than the muscle says it could. This outranks the other three.
2 · Strength, keep the weight: Get stronger — that matters most — without dropping weight while cycling fitness goes up. Lean mass: the weight can hold while more of it becomes muscle, or climb. In golf season, holding both comes first. Now and FTP W.
3 · Explosive: Turn the strength into speed for the swing, peaking for the tournaments and qualifiers, May to August — balanced against goal 2, which edges it. Jumps, throws and fast reps, low volume, full rest, on its own day — never in a session with a ride. No swing-speed target: too much of it is not the gym.
4 · Strong through the range: Strong under load at the ends of the range, not only the middle. Full range, slow lowering. The durability half of goal 1.

Guideposts

Where a little better every week should land by March. Not bars to clear.

Measure	Mar 2027	Why it is on the list
Weeks lifted, last 12	10+	Goal 1. One session makes the week.
Setbacks, last 4 weeks	0	Goal 1. Flare-ups and new injuries, any cause. The joints set the pace, not the sheet.
Lifted, last 4 weeks	rising slowly	Goal 2. Weight × reps across every set. It rises from doing all the sets and from earned jumps — never from one heavy single.
Weight	171+	Goal 2. Not dropping it. A recomp at the same weight counts.
Bench	3 × 5 at 95	Goal 2, as fast as the shoulder allows and no faster.
Split squat	3 × 8 at 45, one hand	Goal 2. Back near fall 2024, with the load off the back.
Dumbbell row	3 × 10 at 50	Goal 2. Pulling balances the pressing.
Assisted pull-up	5 × 5 at 70 help	Less help, only while the shoulder stays quiet.

Now is the last working set in Strava — the weight you did most sets at that day. Weights in lb. Split squats and lunges are one dumbbell in one hand; other dumbbell lifts are per hand.

Where it stands

From Strava’s logged lifts.

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Progress by segment

Watts per heartbeat for each 5-mile block, by window and ride type.

Window

Two stages, separated

The same blocks split into power and heart rate, each against segment 1.

Average power Average heart rate

Drift within a ride

Watts per beat over the previous three miles, by mile — where a ride comes apart.

Method & caveats

Metric: Average watts ÷ average heart rate, each 5-mile block, from Strava’s streams. Higher is better.
Ride type: Time above Zone 2 (147 bpm): Endurance under 35% · Tempo 35–70% · Threshold over 70%.
Sample: The main limit. By-type results are a direction, not a measurement. 2025 has one outdoor ride over 5 miles.
Confound
Terrain: Ruled out. First ten rides climbed 28, 29, 31 ft/mi in segments 1–3: later miles slightly harder, not easier.
Warm-up: Ruled out. Dropping the first 1.5 miles (heart rate still rising) moved the segment 1→2 drop from −7.5% to −7.7% (first ten rides).
Windows: Most recent: the latest ride of the selected type. Last 30 days: rolling. Last 365 days: every ride with power, so the baseline the other two sit on, not a separate sample; edit its dates for a custom range. Dates are in the legend.
Incomplete: A ride’s last partial segment, usually the coast home, is left out. Aug 24’s last 2.9 miles: −58 ft, 5 ft/mi climbing.

Best power by duration

Best watts held for a set stretch, per ride. Slide from five seconds to an hour.

The benchmark

DT, from a race effort Oct 2024 — roughly Cat 4, FTP about 275 W.

Duration	DT	Mar 2027	On his wheel	Contest a finish
5 s	1,139	900–950	—	1,150
1 min	462	380–400	420	465
2 min	356	290–300	320	360
5 min	284	230–240	250	285
8 min	268	220–230	240	270
20 min	234	185–200	210	235
FTP	275	185–200	200–210	240+

Stage 1 · Mar 2027: Hang on over the flat. Drafting is worth about 25%, so sitting on his wheel at 18–19 mph costs roughly 155–160 W — already near your threshold, and comfortable by March. You still get dropped on every climb.
Stage 2 · ~2028: Stay on the wheel over the climbs. The gate is the short rises: within about 10% of his 1-minute power and you hold the wheel over a 90-second climb instead of losing it. This is the stage that turns riding with him from survival into riding.
Stage 3 · 2029–30: Contest a finish. Not in a sprint — he beats you there by 40% and that gap closes only slowly, from both ends, as his neuromuscular power declines and yours builds. The win comes on a short steep climb close to the finish: attack at the bottom, empty it over the top, and leave no road for his engine to reel you back in.
Why one minute: (, against at five minutes), and it is what your roads actually ask for — Punkatasset 83 s, Pantry Road 72 s, Liberty Street 61 s, Monument St Hill 91 s. There is almost no 4–5 minute climbing around Concord. The duration where you are strongest relative to him is also the duration your terrain rewards. Your W came from an ordinary ride, never a maximal test, so the real gap is probably smaller than it reads. Test it in spring.
The honest part: He has a decade of base, rides 164 hours a year, and will keep improving. The sprint gap narrows on its own; the aerobic gap only moves if you move it. Stage 1 is away. Stage 3 may never arrive, and the plan is still right either way — every number in it serves goal 1 first.

Every ride

What this page knows about each ride that Strava does not. The filters apply to both tables.

Plan					This page’s analysis					Body		Strava, for context
Date	Block	Ride	Planned as	On plan	Type	Time above Z2	Time over 125 W	Decoupling	W/bpm fade	Injury	Weight	Miles	Time	Avg W	Avg HR	Strain

Every segment

Every complete 5-mile block of the rides above.

Date	Block	Ride	Type	Segment	Avg W	Avg HR	W/bpm	vs seg 1	Rolling 30d	30d vs seg 1	Decoupling

Block

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Sessions

Bars are pounds lifted, dots are sessions — by week for a block, by month for the year.

By muscle

Each week (each month for the year), and a line that smooths it. One measure at a time.

The dotted line averages the last 5 weeks you lifted (3 months for the year; max weight: the last 3 sessions), reaching back before the block. A week with no lifting is marked off and left out of every average, so a missed week doesn’t read as a drop — Weeks lifted is where it counts. Each lift counts once, to the muscle it mainly works. Max weight follows each muscle’s lead lift — weights across different lifts do not compare. Reps count only sets that moved weight.

One lift over time

Each session, with what you did. The line is the average of the last three.

Date	Block	Did	Sets	Reps	Total	vs last time

Did is the working set, the weight you did most sets at, other sets under it. Assisted pull-ups count your weight less the help.

Every lift

The working set: the weight you did most sets at that day. Double-click a lift for its history.

Exercise	Times	Last	Now	vs last time	Since block start

Now is the last working set. Up is more weight, or more reps at the same weight; on assisted moves, less help. Weights in lb; split squats and lunges are one dumbbell, one hand.

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Weight

Morning weigh-ins, logged as you send them.

Rating scale

How an injury feels in training, and what that does to riding and lifting.

Rating	Feels	Riding	Lifting

Chronic

Always active. The plan works around them; flare-ups are logged.

Injury	Started	Now	Limits	Workaround	Flare-ups	Treatment

Active

Rated 1–5 in training — see Rating scale.

Injury	Started	Now	Limits	Ratings	Treatment

History

Past sports injuries — how bad each got, and what it stopped.

Injury	Started	Ended	Limits	Ratings	What happened	Treatment